Search results for "Demand shock"
showing 7 items of 7 documents
Regional Labour Market Adjustment: Are Positive and Negative Shocks Different?
2001
This paper investigates the evolution of regional disparities in Finland between 1988 and 1997. The analysis focuses on per capita GDP and its subcomponents, particularly labour productivity, jobs and population. The results show, first, that the evolution of labour productivity and the number of jobs account for the emerged regional divergence of per capita GDP during 1990-1995. Second, even though inter-regional migration tends to have convergent effects on regional per capita GDP, its effect was not strong enough during 1990-1995: the divergence of productivity and jobs dominated. Third%2C among divergent factors (productivity and jobs), manufacturing contributes the most to the divergen…
Threshold rule and scaling behavior in a multi-agent supply chain
2010
In this paper an agent-based model of self organized criticality is developed in a network economy characterized by lead time and a threshold behavior of firms. Instead of considering the aggregate production of the economy as a whole, we focus on both the propagation and amplification effects of a demand shock in the sectorial productions of a multi-agent supply chain. We study a static network structure representing a relation of firms in a lower-upper stream in an industrial organization. In our model, the individual (R, nQ) policies play an important role in generating a propagation effect across the different layers of the economy, and the propagation turns into the large fluctuations …
Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area
2006
We present maximum likelihood estimates of a small scale dynamic general equilibrium model for the Eurozone. We pay special attention to the role of money, both through its direct effect upon private agents’ decisions and as a component of the monetary policy rule. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find no direct effect of money upon inflation and output but money growth plays a significant role in the interest rate rule. Second, money demand shocks mainly help to forecast real balances while real shocks explain the bulk of price, output and interest rates fluctuations. Third, the estimated model predicts sensible conditional correlations among those variables both to dema…
The Effect of Systemic Banking Crises on Entrepreneurship
2014
Economic crises have mixed effects on entrepreneurship. Through demand shocks, credit constraints, and unemployment, systemic banking crises affect the rate of start-up business creation, although the extent of their impact varies. Consequently, previous studies on the effect of crises on Entrepreneurship are inconclusive. The surge of global demand coupled with low credit availability reduces the prospects for new businesses. On the other hand, job losses caused by an economic crisis might lead many entrepreneurs to undertake new projects. These inconsistent conclusions highlight the need for more studies that explore the effect of systemic banking crises on entrepreneurship. This article …
Housing market shocks in italy: A GVAR approach
2020
Abstract In this paper, we use a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to assess the spatio-temporal mechanism of house price spillovers, also known as “ripple effect”, among 93 Italian provincial housing markets, over the period 2004 − 2016 . In order to better capture the local housing market dynamics, we use data not only on house prices but also on transaction volumes. In particular, we focus on estimating, to what extent, exogenous shocks, interpreted as negative housing demand shocks, arising from 10 Italian regional capitals, impact on their house prices and sales and how these shocks spill over to neighbours housing markets. The negative housing market demand shock hitting the G…
The effect of the great recession on foreign direct investment: global empirical evidence with a gravity approach
2013
This article estimates the effect of the present global systemic banking crisis on foreign direct investment (FDI) using the gravity equation on a sample of 161 countries over the period 2003 to 2010. Systemic banking crises, through demand shocks and credit constraints, may impact FDI in two ways: aggregate monetary flows and individual projects count. Since gravity equations account for output variations, our research relies on the financial constraints channel. We find that the great recession, through credit constraints on home supply markets, has reduced the number of FDI projects, but not their size, forcing investors to become more selective on their international endeavours.
Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures
2018
Abstract In many futures markets, trading is concentrated on the front contract and positions are rolled-over until the strategy horizon is attained. In this paper, a pair-wise comparison between the conventional risk premium and the accrued risk premium in rolled-over positions on the front contract is carried out for UK natural gas futures. Several novel results are obtained. Firstly, and most importantly, the accrued risk premium in rollover strategies is significatively larger than conventional risk premiums and increases with the time to delivery. Specifically, for strategy horizons between three and six months, this difference increases from 1% to 10% (or from 4% to 20% in annualized …